The Effect of Inflation, Rupiah Exchange Rate, and Stock Volatility on Trading Volume Activity of State-Owned Banks Listed on the IDX (2020-2025)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.47747/fmiic.v1i3.3570Abstract
This study examines the impact of macroeconomic factors and market indicators on the Trading Volume Activity (TVA) of state-owned banks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) from January 2020 to December 2025. Utilizing a quantitative approach and purposive sampling, five prominent state-owned banking institutions were selected, yielding a balanced panel dataset of 360 monthly observations. The data were evaluated using panel data regression analysis. The empirical findings reveal that macroeconomic variables heavily dictate investor behavior; inflation exerts a significant negative effect on TVA, confirming that reduced purchasing power and rising operational costs deter active trading. Similarly, the Rupiah exchange rate shows a significant negative relationship with TVA, indicating that currency depreciation acts as a negative market signal that triggers capital flight and dampens trading activity. Conversely, market-driven metrics demonstrate positive dynamics. Stock returns have a significant positive impact on TVA, proving that solid financial performance captures investor attention and stimulates market participation. Furthermore, stock volatility possesses a significant positive relationship with TVA, aligning with the Sequential Information Arrival Hypothesis where price fluctuations serve as a catalyst for speculative trading and portfolio rebalancing. Simultaneously, the combined model proves highly robust, explaining 28.55% of the variations in the trading volume of state-owned banks. These insights provide valuable guidelines for investors formulating risk-managed strategies and policymakers striving to maintain domestic financial stability during fluctuating economic cycles.
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