Analysis of Output and Employment of Trade in India: A Case of rising Capital Intensity and Its Implications

Dipak Prakash

doi:10.47747/ijfr.v3i2.759

Authors

Dipak Prakash ARSD College, India

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.47747/ijfr.v3i2.759

Keywords:

Trade, Output, Employment, Structural Change, Growth, Development

Abstract

Trade is by far labour-intensive sector. The sector is dominated by unorganized activities. Though, post-1990s, the share of organized sector has been rising but at slow pace. Till 2003-04, the sector has grown well as a consequence, output has risen and concomitant increase in the share of employment has been noticed. From 2003-04 onwards a significant increase in capital intensity has been noticed which increased the productivity of the sector. Therefore, contribution of the sector in employment generation has decimated, despite the fact that there was no decline in output. Rise in capital intensity is attributed to formalisation of the sector and resultant increase in investment.

References

Acemoglu , D., & Robinson, J. (2012). Why nations fail. New York: Crown Publishers.

Agarwal, M. &. (2015). Structural change in the indian economy. . CDS working paper.

Ahluwalia, I. J. (1985). Industrial Growth in India. New Delhi: Oxford University Press.

Ahluwalia, M. S. (2002). Economic reforms in India since 1991: Has gradualism worked? Journal of Economic perspectives, 67-88.

Ahmed, S. (2007). India's Long-Term Growth Experience Lessons and Prospects. Washington, DC 20433 : Sage Publications India Pvt Ltd .

Banga, R. (2005). Critical Issues In India’s Service-Led Growth . ICRIER Working Paper no. 171.

Bardhan, P. (1984). The Political Economy of development in Iindia. Oxford: Basil Blackwell.

Baumol, W. J., & Bowen, W. G. (1965). On the Performing Arts: the Anatomy of their Economic Problems. The American Economic Review, 495-502.

Bhagwati , J. N., & Desai, P. (1970). India: Planning for industrialisation; industrialisation and trade policies since 1951. LONDON: OECD, OXFORD University Press.

Bhagwati, J. N. (1965). Why are Services Cheaper in the Poor Countries? . In G. Grossman, Essays in Development Economics Series, vol. 1 . Cambridge, MIT Press, England, Blackwell 82-91.

Bhattacharya, B. B., & Mitra, A. (1990). Excess Growth of Tertiary Sector in Indian Economy: Issues and Implications. Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. 25, No. 44, 2445-2450.

Bosworth, B., & Maertens, A. (2010). The role of the service sector in economic growth and employment in South Asia. In E. Ghani, The service revolution in South Asia. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Brochure- new series on NAS base year 1999-2000 . (n.d.). New Delhi.

Bryson, J. R. (1998). Introduction: Understanding the Rise and Role of Service Activities and Employment in the Global Economy: An Introduction to the Academic Literature. In J. R. Bryson, Service Industries in the Global Economy, vol. I. Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd: Cheltenham, UK.

Chandrasekhar, C. P. (2000). Services Sector Growth: What does it mean? Hindu Business Line.

chapter 9: services sector. (2017). New Delhi: Government of India.

Chaudhary, S. (2011). Employment in India: What Does the Latest Data Show? EPW, 24-25.

Chenery, H. (1979). Structural Change and Development Policy. Washington, D.C.: Oxford University Press .

Chenery, H. B., & Syrquin, M. (1975). Patterns of development 1950-1970. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Clark, C. (1940). The Conditions of Economic Progress. London: Macmillan.

Comin, D. (2006). Total Factor Productivity. New York University and NBER.

Dasgupta, S., & Singh, A. (2005). Will services be the new engine of Indian economic growth? Development and Change, 1035-1057.

Datta, M. (1989). Tertiary Sector and Net Material Product: Indian Economy, 1950-51 to 1983- 84. Economic and Political Weekly.

Diewert, E. W. (1999). Special Issue on Service Sector Productivity and the Productivity Paradox. Canadian Journal of Economics, 32 (2).

Economic Times. (2018, December 13). Retrieved from https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy

Eichengreen, B., & Gupta, P. (2010). The Service Sector as India’s Road to Economic Growth? ICRIER Working Paper.

Fisher, A. G. (1946). Tertiary Production as a Postwar International Economic Problem. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 146-151.

Fuchs, V. R. (1965). ‘The Growing Importance of the Service Industries. Journal of Business, 38, 344-373.

Gordon, R. J. (1996). Problems in the measurement and performance of service-sector productivity in the United State. NBER paper series.

Hansda, S. K. (2001). Sustainability of Services-Led Growth: An Input Output Analysis of the Indian Economy. Reserve Bank of India Occasional Papers, 73-118.

Herrendorf, B., Rogerson, R., & Valentinyi, A. (2013). Growth and Structural Transformation.

Hill, T. (1977). On Goods and Services. Review-of-Income-and-Wealth23(4), 315-38.

Himanshu. ( 2011). Employment Trends in India: A Re-examination. EPW, 43-59.

Input-Output Table 2007-08. (2012). New Delhi: Mospi, Goi.

Joshi, S. (2004). Tertiary Sector-Driven Growth in India: Impact on Employment and Poverty . EPW.

Kaldor, N. (1966). Causes for the Slow Rate of Growth of the United Kingdom. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Kochhar, K., Kumar, U., Raghuram Rajan, A. S., & Tokatlidis, I. (2006). India’s Pattern of Development: What Happened, What Follows? . IMF Working Paper.

Kumar, A. (2002). Black economy in India. Penguin Books in India.

Kumar, A. (2005-06). Flawed macro statistics: overestimated growth and underestimated inflation. New Delhi: Alternative Economic Survey.

Kuznets, S. (1973). Modern Economic Growth: Findings and Reflections. The American Economic Review, 247-258.

Mazumdar, D., & Sarkar, S. (2007). Growth of Employment and Earnings in Tertiary Sector, 1983-2000. EPW, 976-977.

Mazumdar, K. (1995). Disproportional Growth of Service Sector in India: 1960-1990. The Indian Economic Journal, 43 (2).

Mazumdar, S. (2010). Industry and services in growth and structural cahnge in India: some unexplored features. NEW DELHI: ISID.

Mehrotra , S., Parida, J., Sinha, S., & Gandhi, A. (2014). Explaining Employment Trends in the Indian. EPW, 50-51.

Mehrotra, S. (2019, june 09). Manufacturing sector’s ‘missing middle’. Business Line.

Misra, S., & Suresh, A. K. (2014). Estimating Employment Elasticityof Growth for the Indian Economy. Mumbai: Department Of Economic And Policy Research, RBI.

Mitra, A. (1988). Disproportionality and the Services Sector: A Note. Social Scientist, 3-8.

MOSPI. (2019). Retrieved from https://mospi.gov.in/: https://mospi.gov.in/

Mukherjee, A. (2013). The Service Sector in India. Asian Development Bank Economics Working Paper Series No. 352, 29.

Myrdal, G. (1957). Economic theory and Under-developed Regions. London: Duckworth.

Myrdal, G. (1968). Asian Drama: An Inquiry into the Poverty of Nations. New York.

Nagaraj, R. ( 1991). Excess Growth of Tertiary Sector? Economic and Political Weekly, 247-248.

Nagaraj, R. (2000). Indian Economy since 1980: Virtuous Growth or Polarisation? Economic and Political Weekly, 2831- 2838.

Nagaraj, R. (2009). Is Services Sector Output Overestimated? An Inquiry. Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. 44, No. 5, 40-45.

Papola, T. S. (2008). Employment Challenge and Strategies in India: An Assessment in the Framework of. Geneva: ILO.

Papola, T. S. (2012). Structural Changes in the Indian Economy: emerging patterns and implications. New Delhi: ISID.

Patnaik, P. (2004). On Changing Course in India: An Agenda for. Social Scientist.

Pattanaik, F., & Nayak, N. C. (2010). Employment Intensity of Service Sector in India: Trend and Determinants. nternational Conference on Business and Economics Research (pp. 65-66). Kuala Lumpur: IACSIT Pres.

Rakshit, M. (2007). Services-led Growth The Indian Experience. Money and Finance, 36.

Rangarajan, C., Padma, I. K., & Seema. (2007). Revisiting Employment and Growth. Money and finance.

Raveendran, G., & Unni, J. (2007). Growth of Employment (1993-94 to 2004-05): Illusion of Inclusiveness? EPW.

Reddy, Y. V. (2006). Importance of Productivity in India. Reserve Bank of India Bulletin.

Report of the High Level Group on Services Sector. (2008). New Delhi: Government of India, Planning Commission of India.

Report. (n.d.). Employment Perspective and Labour Policy. New Delhi: Panning Commission of India.

Rodrik, D. (2015). Premature deindustrialisation. Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge: NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH.

Rodrik, D., & Subramanian, A. (2004). From “Hindu Growth” to Productivity Surge: The Mystery of the Indian Growth Transition . IMF Working Paper.

Rodrik, D., & Subramanian, A. (2005). From "Hindu Growth" to Productivity Surge: The Mystery of the Indian Growth Transition. Washington: Palgrave Macmillan.

Shankar, A. N. (2003). India's Economy Some Issues and Asnwers: Essays on Current Economic Issues. Academic Foundation.

Shetty, S. (2007). Status Paper on Database Issues of the Services Sector. Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. 42, No. 37.

Singh, K., & Saluja, M. R. (n.d.). Input-Output Table of India: 2013-14. NCAER.

Singh, N. (2006). Services-Led Industrialization in India:Prospects and Challenges . Working Paper Stanford University .

Smith, A. (1776). The Wealth of Nations.

Sources and Methods, National Accounts and Statistics, CSO, MOSPI. (2012). New Delhi.

Srinivasan, T. (2005). Comments on ʺFrom ʹHindu Growthʹ to Productivity Surge: The Mystery of the Indian Growth Transition. IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 52, No. 2.

Srinivasan, T. N., & Tendulkar, S. D. (2003). Reintegrating India with the World Economy. Columbia: Columbia University Press.

Stigler, G. J. (1956). Trends in Employment in the Service Industries. Princeton: National Bureau of Economic Research, Princeton University Press.

Subramanian, A. (2019). India’s GDP Mis-estimation: Likelihood, Magnitudes, Mechanisms, and Implications. Massachusetts.: Center for International Development at Harvard University.

Virmani, A. (2004). Sources Of India’s Economic Growth:. ICRIER Working Paper No. 131.

World Employment and Social Outlook : Trends 2020. Geneva: ILO.